Steve Jobs gives a legendary keynote at Macworld SF every January, launching products and giving a state of the union view of things at Apple. I wondered what effect the Jobs keynote had on Apple's (AAPL) stock price in the short term. What if you invested $10,000 the day before the keynote, then sold at the end of the keynote day? What if you waited until the day after? What if you did this every year for the past ten years that Jobs has been doing them? Is it possible to make money off the Apple keynote talks given by Steve Jobs?
| Date | AAPL (day before) | AAPL (day of) | Δ | Δ% | AAPL (day after) | Δ | Δ% | Products launched |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2008* | $178.78 | $169.04 | -$9.74 | -5.4% | $159.64 | -$19.14 | -10.7% | Time Capsule, Movie Rentals, AppleTV 2, Macbook Air |
| 9 Jan 2007 | $85.47 | $92.57 | $7.10 | 8.3% | $97.00 | $11.53 | 13.5% | iPhone, AppleTV |
| 10 Jan 2006 | $76.05 | $80.86 | $4.81 | 6.3% | $83.90 | $7.85 | 10.3% | iLife06, iWork06, MacBook Pro, Core Duo iMac |
| 11 Jan 2005 | $68.96 | $64.56 | -$4.40 | -6.4% | $65.46 | -$3.50 | -5.1% | iLife05, iWork, Mac mini, iPod Shuffle |
| 6 Jan 2004 | $22.17 | $22.09 | $-0.08 | -0.4% | $22.59 | $0.42 | 1.9% | Xserve G5, Office2004, iLife04, iPod Mini |
| 7 Jan 2003 | $14.90 | $14.85 | -$0.05 | -0.3% | $14.55 | -$0.35 | -2.3% | 12" & 17" Powerbooks, Safari, 802.11g, firewire 800 |
| 7 Jan 2002 | $23.69 | $22.90 | -$0.79 | -3.3% | $22.61 | -$1.08 | -4.6% | iMac G4 |
| 9 Jan 2001 | $16.56 | $17.19 | $0.63 | 3.8% | $16.56 | $0.00 | 0% | iTunes, Powerbook Titanium |
| 5 Jan 2000 | $102.50 | $104.00 | $1.50 | 1.5% | $95.00 | -$7.50 | -7.3% | Mac OS X announced as future OS, Steve Jobs becomes CEO |
| 5 Jan 1999 | $41.25 | $43.31 | $2.06 | 5.0% | $41.75 | $0.50 | 1.2% | Firewire, Mac OS X Server preview |
| 6 Jan 1998 | $15.19 | $14.75 | -$0.44 | -2.9% | $17.31 | $2.12 | 14.0% | MacOS 8.1, Quicktime 3.0, Office98 |
Key: Gains Losses
The last two years have been amazing, showing 7.3% growth if you held AAPL for 24 hours, and 11.9% if you held it for 48 hours. Bear in mind that a "good" investment is one that does about 10% a year and these numbers are for 1 and 2 days of investment time. If you did this for the past five years, you would have gained 1.5% when held for 24 hours each year and 3.7% when held for 48 hours. Overall, for the entire past decade, the numbers are 1.2% growth for 24 hours and 2.2% growth for 48 hours. Of course, if you held the $10,000 of shares bought in 1997, your investment would be worth $525,187 today (with AAPL around $200/share today, counting two 2-for-1 splits). In a world where doubling your money ever 7 years is a wise investment, making over 50x your investment in ten years is crazy amounts of growth.
Looking at the products announced/released for the past 10 years, I would say there's a correlation between highly successful products and a quick rise in price. The iPhone has been a huge success and the markets have rewarded them for it. The 2006 launch of the MacBook Pro (and later that year, the MacBook) has helped Apple gain over 17% of laptop sales marketshare. Two other years showing growth coincided with Microsoft announcing Office versions for the Mac, likely showing Apple to be more business friendly and worthy of investment.
For 2008, it's tough to tell what is going to happen. There are plenty of rumors of an ultra portable (touchscreen tablet?), iPhone updates, and iTunes Movie Rentals. It's tough to tell which (if any) might come true and if they'll have the lasting impact on the market that the past couple years of keynotes have.
It's a risky proposition to act as a daytrader with Apple stock around the Steve Jobs keynote regardless of what rumored devices are on the horizon, but the lesson I'm taking away from it is that buying and holding is the definite winner. Of course, without a time machine to travel back to 1997, continued growth for the next ten years may not meet the 52x growth seen in the past ten years.
Thanks goes out to the generous and informative answers I got at my own site, Ask MetaFilter. I searched for a way to figure out historical stock prices and the exact dates of the last ten years of Macworld keynote addresses by Steve Jobs. Information about released products comes from the awesome German wiki SteveNotes (listing date and content of every keynote ever given by Steve Jobs) and YouTube searches for Macworld SF videos.
Wow, the 2008 keynote has come and gone and offered up a few mildly impressive debuts. I personally think the AppleTV-as-settop-box is going to be huge down the line, but I'd have to say "meh" about the new Macbook Air. It's pretty, and it's certainly light and small, but I don't feel like it's anything more than a specialized product for just the biggest fans and frequent travelers. It looks like the market has come down hard on Apple, reporting a 10% loss by day two this year.
This is not investment advice. I'm not an investment banker. I don't even own any AAPL stock. Past performance does not guarantee future growth. Caveat Emptor. When in doubt, consult a doctor.